He also puts forward a number of suggestions for how to minimize the danger of either unionists or nationalists boycotting a constitutional plebiscite to make it appear illegitimate, and sets out a number of options for constitutional change that the author deems impossible or improbable: confederation, federation, repartition, joint sovereignty between London and Dublin, and Northern Irish independence. Eyeing up the various options, O’Leary proposes two models for reunification that he considers most viable. The Government of Ireland Act of 1920, the instrument of partition enacted by the Westminster parliament, was the most enduring gerrymander of the last century. With some truculence Ulster unionists accepted a six-county Northern Ireland rather than one consisting of all nine counties of Ulster. Their local leaders had made a strategic decision. In the words of James Craig, Northern Ireland’s first prime minister, they would secure those counties they could control, and thereby create “a new and impregnable Pale”, behind which loyalists could withdraw and regroup to maintain the union with Great Britain.

The mediation and resolution of current difficulties will require great vision and present many challenges. According to O’Leary, there will still be a “Briti Northern Irish citizens are allowed to apply for Irish passports and, if the UK Government agreed, that Good Friday Agreement arrangement could be adapted for those wanting British passports.And if the Protocol survives for the North, its own economy will benefit from tariff-free access to the EU and British markets. O’Leary believes that a united Ireland will benefit from a larger national market, more closely integrated into the European single market and attractive to US foreign investment – all as part of the most dynamic and largely English-speaking economic unit in the western EU. “The North will benefit most, but the South would make net gains too if the economic modeling described here is broadly correct. A united Ireland may also be judged a comparatively better democracy than its immediate neighbor.” Making Sense of a United Ireland is a landmark exploration of this most contentious of issues. Distinguished political scientist Brendan O'Leary - a global expert on divided places, who has been profoundly engaged with the Irish question for nearly four decades - argues that the time to consider the future of the island of Ireland is now. Explaining Northern Ireland devoted two of its chapters to these competing and irreconcilable Marxist schools of thought, from the “Green” or anti-imperialist Marxism represented by the group People’s Democracy to the “revisionist” Marxism of the British and Irish Communist Organization and the Workers’ Party. The book’s treatment of figures such as Michael Farrell, Eamonn McCann, Paul Bew, and Henry Patterson, whose writings were highly influential in shaping perceptions of Northern Ireland, was tinged with sympathy — unsurprisingly so, given O’Leary’s past identifications with the Left. That said, the authors viewed revolutionary theories of change with barely concealed contempt. A Guide to Action A recent Irish Times poll found a majority of voters in the South favor a united Ireland in the long term, but oppose some of the measures that could be necessary to facilitate it, such as a new national anthem or increased public sector spending.

The tide seems remorseless, inevitable. Unity advocates are at pains to avoid triumphalism. There are no Irish tricolours or rebel ballads at Ireland’s Future events. Gerry Adams stays behind the scenes. The message is: unity is coming, unionists will be welcome, let’s discuss details. “Constitutional change will require planning and preparation. It’s not about imposing a preordained result on anybody,” said John Finucane, a Sinn Féin MP.Seeing is believing. Anyone who journeyed around the entirety of the Republic in 1987 and did the same in 2021 — and that includes me — sees the palpable evidence. The proofs are the physical numbers of people in the island, not just new immigrants; the quality of roads, cars, houses, clothes, schools and universities, and restaurants; and the agglomeration of enterprises — inside and outside the M50. Business was brisk at the Shankill Historical Society shop and museum on a sunny weekday morning last week. Gavin Robinson, the DUP deputy leader, accused nationalists of trying “to manipulate the politics” and use “totemic” issues like Brexit. One section of Making Sense discusses the failed unification of Cyprus and the successful unification of Germany as examples for Ireland to study. The 2004 Annan Plan to unify Cyprus was accepted by Turkish Cypriots but rejected by their Greek Cypriot counterparts in parallel referendums. According to O’Leary, one lesson to be learned from this failed reunification project is that “ambiguities in a negotiated text can have negative consequences.” Turkish Cypriots “believed they were voting to join the European Union,” while Greek Cypriots “believed that all of Cyprus would legally accede to the European Union, irrespective of the outcome of the referendum.” O’Leary insists that the southern economy is robust enough to bear the cost of reunification, which is in any case exaggerated in much of the media commentary. Moderate Unionists have turned to the centrist Alliance, which is Northern Ireland’s third largest party and is neither Unionist nor nationalist. It also has no position on reunification.