Russian leaders achieved accession to the Council of Europe (1996), the G7 (1997), and the World Trade Organization (2012).

Any Security Council attempt to refer Russia to the International Criminal Court (ICC) would likely face a similar fate. The shift has been mirrored across much of Africa too says Chatham House Africa programme director Dr Alex Vines, highlighting that most abstentions (51 per cent) condemning Russia’s invasion at the UN came from African countries, marking a partial resurgence of what was many African nations’ default position in the Cold War.

Timothy Ash, associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia programme, says that while there is a small possibility of positive change with reforming forces emerging, more likely is the disintegration of the Russian federation into many new states. With China currently producing around 70 per cent of all the world’s solar panels, some nations have already started to restructure their industries to be more self-reliant in renewables production. In a more positive vein, others point out that despite the colossal tests of multilateralism and the rule of law, nations are still demonstrating they can come together. Closer to Europe, Turkiye sees itself as playing a role similar to the one that India aspires to globally. However, a strikingly high proportion of respondents in the US, Great Britain, and the EU – between 40 and 50 per cent – say they simply do not know how to define Turkiye.

The polling and analysis contained in this policy brief is the result of a collaboration between the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Europe in a Changing World project of the Dahrendorf Programme at St Antony’s College, University of Oxford. It is worth noting, however, that almost a third of people in both these countries would prefer Ukraine to regain all of its territory, even if it means a longer war or more Ukrainians being killed and displaced.Dr Vines says: ‘Non-alignment is much more comfortable than being pigeonholed as part of a Western position – or indeed an Eastern position. This includes analysing the path forward for enlargement, the energy transition, and European support for Ukraine. International negotiations are underway to reach agreement on crucial global issues such as plastics and biodiversity.

The responses are less clear cut in Russia and Turkiye, but, still, Turks’ most frequent response is their own country (36 per cent). During the Iraq war of 2003, leading European intellectuals such as Jacques Derrida and Jürgen Habermas tried to define the EU’s political identity in contrast to that of the US. Peace negotiations, by nature, invariably involve some compromise but there is a real risk in leaving Ukraine’s sovereignty insecure and Russia ‘sitting on the edge and threatening to regroup’ says Bronwen Maddox. Russia’s invasion has also strengthened NATO’s deterrence posture and increased its forward presence in Eastern Europe. But I think the actual result is it’s very harmful for the country and that it really amounts to a transfer of wealth and safety and all kinds of things from the many to the few.The US has its protectionist Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) offering large subsidies for domestic production of electrical vehicles and other ‘green’ sectors, and the EU recently announced a revised ‘Green Deal Industrial Plan’ it hopes will rival it. Finland and Sweden, two countries which have until now shunned NATO membership to avoid antagonizing Russia, are also set to join the alliance in a historic shift. Finally, it should also be acknowledged that, though Russia may be the architect of the Greater Eurasian partnership, it will surely be China that will decide its fate.